In late July 2025, the Trump administration announced sweeping 39% tariffs on Swiss luxury goods, including watches. The policy, effective August 7, jolted the secondary market into one of the sharpest but shortest dislocations in recent memory. For two weeks, dealers, collectors, and brands recalibrated in real time, exposing the mechanics of price sensitivity, regional strategy, and brand resilience in the face of sudden policy shock
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The Shockwave: Sellers Rush, Buyers Resist
The initial response was textbook overreaction. Sellers in the U.S., Switzerland, and Hong Kong rushed to list inventory in Week 32, testing higher prices. U.S. listings peaked at 1,430 with median asking prices of $12,000, only to collapse a week later to 898 listings at $8,000, as buyers balked at inflated levels
Switzerland showed more discipline, ending near $7,000 with selective inventory, while Hong Kong functioned as a “pressure valve,” cutting gently and then rebounding in Week 33. Buyers, meanwhile, were highly tactical: U.S. sold volumes dropped 41% in a single week, and Hong Kong endured a 34% price reset as sellers pulled back rather than fire-sale stock
The Brands That Defined the Moment
The tariff window was not evenly felt across the market. Activity clustered at the very top:
- Patek Philippe surged to $87M in Week 31, more than doubling week-over-week, as collectors rushed purchases ahead of the tariff deadline.
- Richard Mille followed, doubling sales to $35M in the same week and then climbing to $48M by Week 34.
- Rolex acted as anchor, peaking at $140M in Week 32, reinforcing its gravitational pull even amid volatility.
Audemars Piguet made a late rally, rebounding from $25M to $47M in Week 34. - Mid-tier brands like Omega and Cartier remained stable, oscillating between $10–13M, proving the durability of more accessible segments even in turbulent weeks
Precision Over Panic
Despite the disruption, the adjustment phase revealed more nuance than chaos. Sellers didn’t slash prices indiscriminately, they calibrated. In the U.S., Audemars Piguet references above $200K saw sales rise 133% after a -23% price adjustment. In Switzerland, Patek Philippe gained +75% on the back of 15% markdowns. Even Richard Mille, usually allergic to discounts, boosted UAE sales volumes by 50% with just a 4% trim.
Rather than destroy brand equity, these moves unlocked rare buying windows. Collectors seized opportunities where value aligned with rarity, particularly in Hong Kong, where Patek Philippe volumes rose 167% in the $50K–100K band despite only a 1% price contraction
Regional Recalibration
Globally, U.S. & Canada briefly lost their top spot to Europe during the tariff peak, before regaining leadership by Week 34. Asia and the Middle East, meanwhile, displayed remarkable calm: Rolex, Patek, and AP held steady across rankings, while Omega, Cartier, and IWC maintained their middle positions with minimal disruption. The consistency underscored a critical point, tariff shocks were localized, not systemic.
The Bigger Picture
By early September, the turbulence had passed. Prices normalized, rankings reverted, and the global hierarchy of Rolex, Patek, and AP resumed. The episode revealed a market that is both fragile in the short-term and structurally resilient in the long-term. Sellers tested, buyers pushed back, and equilibrium returned within weeks.
The lesson? In luxury, agility secures longevity. Tariffs created a ripple, not a rupture, and the industry’s ability to adapt under pressure reaffirmed the enduring demand that underpins the world’s most coveted watches